Evaluating Starting Positions

Why Placement Is the Most Important Decision

Your two starting settlements determine your entire resource economy for the first 5-10 turns of the game. Unlike every other decision in Catan, these placements can't be undone. Build a road in the wrong direction? You can build another. Buy a bad dev card? You'll draw again. But put your first settlement on a 2-12-3 intersection? You're stuck with that production for the rest of the game.

Strong players spend the most mental energy on opening placement. The difference between a great setup and a mediocre one is often the difference between winning and losing. This guide gives you a systematic way to evaluate any intersection on the board.

The Pip Count System

The most fundamental tool for evaluating hex numbers is the pip count. Each number token has dots (pips) on it representing how many ways two dice can produce that number:

6 and 8 — 5 pips each (most common rolls after 7)
5 and 9 — 4 pips each
4 and 10 — 3 pips each
3 and 11 — 2 pips each
2 and 12 — 1 pip each (rarest rolls)

To evaluate an intersection, add up the pips of all adjacent hexes. An intersection touching a 6, 9, and 5 has 5 + 4 + 4 = 13 pips. An intersection touching a 3, 11, and 4 has 2 + 2 + 3 = 7 pips. Higher is better — a 13-pip intersection will produce resources almost twice as often as a 7-pip intersection.

Benchmark: An intersection with 11+ pips is strong. 13+ pips is excellent. Below 9 pips, you're settling on low-probability hexes that won't produce reliably. Aim for a combined 22+ pips across your two starting settlements.

Resource Diversity

Pip count tells you how often you'll produce, but not what you'll produce. Two intersections with the same pip count can have wildly different strategic value depending on their resource mix.

The Five-Resource Spread

Between your two settlements, ideally you want access to all five resource types: brick, lumber, wool, grain, and ore. Each resource opens different build options:

Brick + Lumber — Roads (1+1) and half of settlement cost
Wool + Grain — The other half of settlement cost, plus part of dev card cost
Ore — Critical for cities (3 ore) and dev cards (1 ore)

If your two settlements touch only 3 resource types, you're completely dependent on trading for the missing 2. That's fine if the dice cooperate and opponents are willing to trade — but it's a risky foundation for your entire game plan.

Resource Pairing

Not all resource combinations are equal. Some pairings have natural synergy:

Brick + Lumber + Wool — Settlement-focused. You can build roads and settlements but can't upgrade to cities.
Ore + Grain + Wool — City/dev card-focused. You can upgrade and buy dev cards but can't expand easily.
Brick + Lumber + Grain — Expansion with occasional settlements. Good road-builder start.
Ore + Grain + Brick or Lumber — A semi-balanced opening that covers late-game needs with some early expansion.

Expansion Potential

Good players look beyond the immediate intersection. Your starting settlement is also a launchpad for expansion — roads extending to future settlement sites. An intersection is more valuable if the surrounding territory offers good future settlement spots 2-3 roads away.

Settling on Ore(5)/Grain(9)/Lumber(6) — strong pips (13) with expansion routes toward brick(8) and wool(10).

What to Look For

Open expansion corridors — Are there unblocked road paths to good intersections? Avoid settling in corners where you can only expand in one direction.
Complementary future spots — If your first settlement is ore/grain, are there brick/lumber intersections 2-3 roads away for your expansion?
Port access — Is a useful port within reach of your starting road? Ports within 2-3 roads of your start are extremely valuable.
Opponent density — If three opponents will be placing near you, expansion will be blocked. Sometimes the slightly weaker intersection with open surrounding territory beats the strongest intersection surrounded by opponents.

Tip: Before the draft begins, scan the entire board and mentally rank the top 5-6 intersections. For each one, think about the expansion path. This preparation saves you from panic-picking during the time-pressured draft.

How Draft Position Changes Your Priorities

In the snake draft (1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1), your position dramatically affects your strategy:

First Pick (Position 1)

You get the best single spot on the board, but your second settlement comes last. Prioritize the highest-pip intersection with strong ore or grain — the resources most likely to be contested. Your second pick will probably be whatever's left, so use it to fill gaps.

Middle Picks (Position 2-3)

You have moderate flexibility. Focus on resource diversity across your two picks. If the best remaining spot is ore-heavy, plan your second settlement for brick/lumber. You're playing the pair, not the individual spot.

Last Pick (Position 4)

You place last in the first round but first in the second round — meaning you place both settlements back-to-back. This is secretly powerful: you can plan both positions as a pair without worrying about someone stealing your second spot. Use this to build a cohesive opening. The tradeoff is that positions 1-3 will have already claimed the top spots, so you'll work with what remains.

Common Placement Traps

Chasing High Numbers Only

A 6-8-5 intersection with all three hexes producing lumber is 13 pips — impressive! But it only gives you one resource type. You'll drown in lumber and starve for everything else. A 9-5-8 with three different resources (10 pips) is often a stronger position because it gives you building flexibility.

Over-Avoiding the Desert

Yes, the desert produces nothing. But an intersection touching the desert and two 6/8 hexes has 10 pips from 2 hexes — that's not bad at all. And the desert can't be robbed, so one of your production hexes is guaranteed safe. Don't automatically reject desert-adjacent spots.

Ignoring Opponent Placement Intent

In a 4-player game, the player drafting before you will take the best spot. Before it's your turn, have 2-3 backup options ready. If you've only planned for one spot, you'll panic when someone takes it and settle somewhere suboptimal.

Key insight: The strongest opening comes from thinking about your two settlements as a system, not as two independent choices. What does the pair produce? What build paths does the pair enable? Where can the pair expand? Evaluate the system, not the parts.

Putting It All Together

Here's a quick evaluation checklist you can run through during the setup draft:

1. Count pips — What's the total production probability? Target 11+ per settlement.
2. Check resources — What types does this intersection give me? What am I still missing?
3. Scan expansion — Where can I road to from here? Are the next settlement spots good?
4. Consider ports — Is a useful port nearby? Does it match my surplus resource?
5. Watch opponents — Who's settling near me? Will I be boxed in?
6. Plan the pair — Does this spot complement or duplicate my other settlement?